88 Energy Ltd (OTCMKTS: EEENF) Powerful Reversal Northbound Brewing as Oil Operator Moves On From Merlin-2 to Focus on Portfolio in Alaska North Slope & Newly Acquired Project Longhorn
88 Energy Limited (ASX:88E, AIM:88E, OTC:EEENF) is down big after the Company reported provisional analysis of the wireline logging program indicates reservoir quality at this location is insufficient to warrant a production test and the Company will now plug the well. This has resulted in a very significant and fast drop to well below a penny with EEENF hitting lows of $0.0065. While the plugging of the Merlin 2 represents a significant short-term setback, long term 88 Energy is still in good shape, the Company owns other valuable oil fields and remains in a strong financial position, post the Merlin-2 well, with zero debt and a healthy cash balance that will be further strengthened with projected cash flows from recently acquired portfolio of Texas production assets, Project Longhorn.”
Penny stock speculators are accumulating EEENF at a penny and looking forward to a rebound as the drop has been more significant than the news was bad. 88 Energy is the operator of over 440,000 net acres in total across the Alaskan regions over four highly prospective project areas: Project Icewine, Yukon Leases and Project Peregrine and the Umiat oil fields. As oil continues to rise quickly recently surpassing $100 per barrel, it’s easy to see why EEENF is getting noticed by investors; the Company has been making some big moves behind the scenes including increasing their ownership in the Peregrine mine to 100%, Extinguishing all of their debt, and beefing up their management team with a new petroleum engineer and a petroleum Geologist in Philip Byrne and Robert Benkovic. The Company is very well funded moving forward with $32 million in the treasury and total oil prospects for their wells targeting at least 1.638 billion barrels of oil in the Permian Basin.
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88 Energy Ltd (OTCMKTS: EEENF) is an Alaska-focused oil exploration and appraisal company across ~440,000 net acres targeting the world class North Slope of Alaska estimated by the USGS in 2005 to hold more than 50 billion bbl of oil and natural-gas liquids and 227 trillion cubic feet of gas. 88 Energy owns a diversified portfolio of four highly prospective project areas: Project Icewine, Yukon Leases, Project Peregrine and the Umiat oil field. The company is the Operator across all of its portfolio of world class exploration and appraisal assets. 88 Energy’s drilling programs maintain adherence to the strict environmental regulations that exist in the State of Alaska. It’s drilling programs also provide significant job opportunities to local Alaskans. 88 Energy’s purpose is to build a successful exploration and production company that delivers material returns to its shareholders and contributes to stakeholders and development of the regions in which it operates in. 88 Energy has adopted the World Economic Forum Environment, Social, Governance (ESG) reporting framework to report against key sustainability metrics including governance, ethical behavior, carbon emissions, water consumption, diversity and inclusion.
EEENF holdings include: Project Icewine; – In-house analysis will continue to assess various commercialization options for the gas condensate discovered in the Torok Formation by 88E’s Charlie-1 well in 2020. The discovered resource comprises over 1 TCF of independently estimated gross mean prospective gas as well as associated condensate. The commercialization options include, but are not limited to, possible local power generation, compressed natural gas as well as potential for conversion to hydrogen using steam methane reforming (SMR) with carbon capture and storage (CCS) processes. It is expected that this work will move to a formal feasibility stage during 2021. Farm-out of Project Icewine is ongoing, with a deal targeted in 3Q 2021. Further evaluation will continue on the Project Icewine HRZ liquids-rich unconventional resource play.
Yukon Acreage; – The Yukon Gold leases are located on the eastern border of the Central North Slope of Alaska and were acquired in 2018 and 2019. 88 Energy via its subsidiary Regenerate Energy Alaska Inc. has a 100% working interest in these leases, totaling 15,235 acres. The leases contain an historic discovery well, Yukon Gold #1, which will continue to be evaluated internally. Discussions are ongoing with nearby lease owners to optimize the monetization strategy for existing discovered resources located in the vicinity of the Yukon Leases.
Project Peregrine; – The Merlin-1 and Harrier-1 wells will be drilled and tested in Q1 2022, with Alaska Peregrine Development Company LLC under the terms of the SPA paying the full costs of an appraisal wells up to a total of US$10 million with both wells planned for drilling to a Total Depth of ~6,000’ in order to intersect the prospective Nanushuk topset horizons that are located on trend to existing discoveries to the north of the project area.
Umiat Oil Field; – Subsequent to year-end on 8th January, 88 Energy, via its wholly owned subsidiary Emerald House LLC, entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement with Malamute Energy, Inc and Renaissance Umiat LLC (Sellers) to acquire the Umiat Oil Field. The consideration for the purchase was a 4% ORRI and assumption of the liability for the abandonment of the Umiat-18 and Umiat-23H wells, drilled by Linc Energy in 2013/2014. The estimated cost to abandon the two wells is approximately US$1m and planned to occur in the first half of 2021.
88Energy also just recently completed the acquisition of stablished conventional oil and gas production assets in the proven Permian Basin, collectively known as Project Longhorn with independently certified net 2P reserves of 2.1 MMBOE. The acquisition delivers immediate cash flows, with current gross production from Project Longhorn of approximately 300 BOE per day (approximately 70% oil).
“88 Energy remains in a strong financial position, post the Merlin-2 well, with zero debt and a healthy cash balance that will be further strengthened with projected cash flows from recently acquired portfolio of Texas production assets, Project Longhorn.” pic.twitter.com/VVvdxMvdb0
— Randylus (@randylus) March 29, 2022
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On March 29 EEENF announced the Merlin-2 wireline logging program is nearing completion with the final run-in progress. The wireline program was designed to evaluate and quantify the reservoir potential associated with the oil shows and elevated mud gas readings noted across the target zones in the LWD data. The primary objective of the Merlin-2 well was to collect hydrocarbon samples from the target zones. Unfortunately, this was unable to be achieved using Schlumberger’s MDT (Modular-Formation Dynamics Testing) tool due to the tightness of the formation at this location. Whilst observations of LWD logs and drill cuttings collected throughout the Merlin-2 drilling operations revealed target intervals are thicker than those encountered in Merlin-1, and preliminary analysis of the LWD data indicated sufficient permeability / porosity to obtain a hydrocarbon sample, results from the wireline program have demonstrated target zones to have lower than anticipated porosity / permeability resulting in difficulty obtaining fluid samples of any significance.
The results of Merlin-2 are largely consistent with the initial Merlin-1 exploration well drilled in Project Peregrine in 2021, with strong fluorescence, oil sheen, petroliferous odour and cut noted in the drilling cuttings, elevated C2-C5 mud gas readings over the target zones with total gas significantly above background gas readings and also evidence from the reservoir sampling tool of movable hydrocarbons. The pre-drill expectation from depositional modelling and nearby analogues was that superior thickness and reservoir quality would be encountered to the east of Merlin-1. Whilst thicker target intervals were noted at Merlin-2, the porosity / permeability appear to be largely consistent with those observed at Merlin-1. Both Merlin wells were drilled on sparse, vintage 2D seismic data, which provides a narrow field of view of the reservoir and limited optionality on drilling locations. 88 Energy will now assess the merits of a future 3D seismic acquisition program to better identify with modern processing of data future drilling locations to optimally test and determine the potential commerciality of the Peregrine acreage. Forward operations for the Merlin-2 well will now focus on plugging and abandoning the well and commencing demobilisation from the drilling location. 88 Energy will undertake a detailed evaluation of all the data obtained from the Merlin-2 drilling program and evaluate the potential future appraisal activities within the Project Peregrine acreage, which includes additional independent drilling locations such as the Harrier-1 prospect to test the N-14 and N-15. 88 Energy expects to provide further post well testing and analysis updates, as well as the future work program for Project Peregrine, when this information is available.
Managing Director, Ashley Gilbert, commented: “Whilst the initial results from the Merlin-2 well were encouraging, results from the wireline program have demonstrated target zones to have lower than anticipated porosity and permeability resulting in difficulty obtaining fluid samples. The initial assessment of results of the Merlin-2 well are largely consistent with the Merlin-1 exploration well drilled in Project Peregrine in 2021, with fluorescence and cut noted in the drilling cuttings, elevated mud gas readings over the target zones with total gas above background gas readings and also evidence from the reservoir sampling tool of movable hydrocarbons. We appreciate that this result will be disappointing news for shareholders, in particular that we were again unable to obtain a fluid sample at surface or perform a flow test. However, we will now take the necessary time to fully analyse the data from the Merlin-2 well. This will provide a basis upon which the company can provide further updates on the future potential appraisal program for the Project Peregrine acreage. 88 Energy remains in a strong financial position, post the Merlin-2 well, with zero debt and a healthy cash balance that will be further strengthened with projected cash flows from the recently acquired portfolio of Texas production assets, Project Longhorn. We are well placed to continue reviewing and progressing opportunities within the Alaskan portfolio and particularly encouraged by the results to the north of Project Icewine and look forward to providing updates in relation to this project over the coming months.”
$eeenf -They got other oilfields. I am "NOT" going to "Sell" despite the setback! Will give it a little time – https://t.co/F8m3UIeQ4Q
— Frank Kruemmel (@FrankKruemmel) March 29, 2022
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Currently trading at a $400 million market valuation EEENF has 14,811,076,196 shares outstanding and is in excellent financial position with zero debt and a healthy cash balance that will be further strengthened with projected cash flows from the recently acquired portfolio of Texas production assets, Project Longhorn. EEENF is well placed to continue reviewing and progressing opportunities within the Alaskan portfolio and particularly encouraged by the results to the north of Project Icewine and look forward to providing updates in relation to this project over the coming months. The stock was down big after the Company reported provisional analysis of the wireline logging program indicates reservoir quality at this location is insufficient to warrant a production test and the Company will now plug the well. This has resulted in a very significant and fast drop to well below a penny with EEENF hitting lows of $0.0065 however investors are heavily accumulating at these levels as the drop has been more significant than the news was bad. The Company is very well funded moving forward with $32 million in the treasury and total oil prospects for their wells targeting at least 1.638 billion barrels of oil in the Permian Basin. We will be updating on 88E when more details emerge so make sure you are subscribed to Microcapdaily so you know what’s going on with 88E.
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Disclosure: we hold no position in 88E either long or short and we have not been compensated for this article
Bioxytran (OTCMKTS: BIXT) Peer-Review Published Showing Functional Cure for COVID-19
On the cusp of a cure for COVID, one of the most promising yet under-the-radar biotech stocks on the OTC is generating much well-deserved buzz in the scientific community and is poised to go viral.
Bioxytran Inc. (OTCMKTS: BIXT) over the weekend had their phase 2 top-line results published in the peer-reviewed journal “Vaccines.” There is a not-so-subtle tinge of irony in that name because while their drug is nothing like a vaccine, there is no doubt about its efficacy– 100% PCR negative rate by day 7 versus 6% in placebo. The medical journal article was titled “An Oral Galectin Inhibitor in COVID-19 – A Phase 2 Randomized Controlled Trial.” This is a landmark journal article because – until now – only one other drug, Harvoni, had equaled a 100% responders rate in the past decade. Harvoni ultimately ended up being a cure for Hepatitis C Virus.
At this point in Bioxytran’s drug development pipeline, it essentially has a functional cure for COVID-19 that simply needs a pivotal phase 3 trial to show the true extent of their discovery. Their drug is a galectin antagonist, which neutralizes the now infamous spike proteins by placing a carbohydrate sheath over the spikes making attachment to the cell impossible. The carbohydrates binding grip is so tight on the virus that it carries it around in the blood until it is eventually filtered out by the liver and excreted.
If solving the pandemic wasn’t enough, the company recently reported that in vitro studies suggest the drug would be effective in Influenza and RSV. Yet despite the fact that this one drug could seemingly end upper respiratory infections, which most of us refer to as a “common cold,” it has a nominal market cap of just $50 million.
For the past three months, BIXT has been teasing this peer-reviewed article as a catalyst and a major value inflection point for the company. Despite that, investors haven’t gotten the hint, and have been steadily selling into this inflection point. Even though the company has yet to report it in a press release, the scientific community is understandably going crazy over it. Investors, however, are seemingly oblivious to the viral traffic and simply not paying attention to the sheer magnitude of the discovery–a functional cure for COVID and the methodology to seemingly combat any virus.
One of the reasons peer review is so important for a biotech is that major media outlets won’t touch the science without it. With its publication, this article means that BIXT now has an opportunity to tell its story on network media. The biggest risk that investors now face in BIXT is FOMO, driven by an unexpected media appearance that ushers unbridled buying into the name and leaves tepid investors chasing up.
If the article itself wasn’t enough, their peer-reviewed article was picked up by a major biotech influencer on Twitter, quickly garnering more than 100k hits. The influencer, Chris Turnbull, summarized the article highlighting key points like the rapid viral clearance in 3 days through entry inhibition and suggested the ideal use is when you know you were exposed. He hammered the point that ProLectin-M was for standard-risk patients and that Paxlovid was for high-risk groups with at least one medical condition.
This discovery changes the COVID landscape permanently. Multi-billion dollar antiviral drugs like Paxlovid and Lagevrio can’t hold a candle to the viral clearing power of BIXT’s galectin antagonist. Looking at the Twitter account of BIXT Chief Commercial Officer Michael Sheikh, it’s clear that there are some ongoing discussions with big pharma that have not yielded any fruit. But big pharma may not be their only option. BIXT has also said they are looking to partner with companies with large cash balance sheets. Both galectin antagonist companies Galectin Therapeutics (NASDAQ: GALT) and Galecto Bioscience (NASDAQ: GLTO) fit the profile and are the subject of a number of relatively supportive tweets by Sheikh. Sleuthing Sheikh’s LinkedIn profile reveals hardcore evidence of that sort of dealmaking with clusters of top executives in certain companies and networking, which suggests significant activity among their larger Galectin-focused peers. In an emerging growth interview, the CCO did say that he got a lot of business cards and was networking.
There exists a huge chasm between the current market cap and what it ought to be given that it successfully completed a phase 2 and nailed the endpoint with a perfect score. The CCO described in an Emerging Growth video how valuations work and a number of comparables in the $500 million range for a number of disease indications that BIXT is developing. The stock has a very tiny float of 19 million with an OS of 123 million. This represents a float of 15% and insiders own over 60%. There is no dilution from the convertible notes as they have company-friendly terms that allow up to 5% conversion into restricted common stock. In an Emerging Growth interview a couple of months ago, the CCO acknowledged the stock’s current challenge, indicating a legacy seller was responsible for half the daily volume and was almost gone. In early March after a ZeroHedge article was published, the stock went on a record run to $1.05 in a matter of minutes before short forces brought it back down. On March 7th it looks like the seller ran out of inventory for the day and the demand just lifted the stock price allowing it to go through a short period of natural price discovery. The long-term legacy seller seems to be at the end of his block, which means any news announcement could push the stock higher.
Low-Risk Explosive Reward Profile
There is no doubt that BIXT has incredible potential yet the stock continues to languish. With the anemic volume, it’s very difficult to diagnose what the root cause is for the disconnect from the comparable valuations established by big pharma in the $500 million region and BIXT’s current $50M cap. If one article that generated a little bit of buying pushed it to the brink of explosiveness, perhaps there is more stock from this legacy seller that is still controlling the narrative.
For the investor with a longer-term view, BIXT represents a safe place to park funds for explosive returns. The upcoming catalysts are a dosing of patients in India for the dose optimization trial, a potential IND from the FDA, and of course, the announcement of the peer-reviewed journal article. While it’s uncertain which catalyst will send the stock into overdrive it’s abundantly clear this is one of the most undervalued stocks in OTC.
Pound-for-Pound Comparison of Paxlovid and PLM
Paxlovid also helped lower the length of time people with underlying medical conditions were infectious. However, Paxlovid is not a very effective drug and is walking a tightrope with respect to its approval as more and more real-world data reveals their toxicity.
Here is a chart capture from the company’s latest scientific webinar that shows a side-by-side comparison for illustrative purposes. The charts show that Paxlovid can barely turn 30% of the patients PCR negative by day 20 whereas a majority of the PLM patients were PCR negative on day 3. This is an absolute game-changer in controlling the pandemic. The other thing that this peer-reviewed journal highlighted is that the symptoms were eliminated and without those symptoms, people were unlikely to develop Long COVID. It’s very reasonable to believe that PLM stops Long COVID due to its mechanism of action as well as the fact that it appeared to eliminate symptoms in this trial, as seen in the picture below. While it’s nice that Paxlovid stops hospitalization and death, PLM takes it to a new level by making you feel better faster and eliminating the risk of Long COVID.
Bioxytran is not only sitting on a solution for COVID and a possible end to the pandemic, but it appears they can also treat Long COVID and a number of viruses. All this information is out there in the public domain and investors seem to be sitting on their hands waiting for something more to happen. It’s unclear what that trigger will be. Will it be a video interview on major media? Will it be the IND announcement from the FDA? Or will it be an explosion of XBB1.16 cases in India whereby they fast-track the PLM development in the country? Whatever the catalyst, the risk/ reward scenario on BIXT is one of the best in all of the OTC. The small float coupled with the lack of an S-1 on file eliminating the risk of immediate dilution bodes well for either a long-term or medium-term investor.
Investors need to ask themselves if they could have invested in penicillin knowing the impact it was going to have last century would they have dived in? Investors are facing a similar scenario with PLM. This is perhaps the biggest antiviral discovery of the century which amounts to a functional cure for COVID and possibly other viruses. Will investors stay on the sideline because some grumpy shareholder is selling not allowing immediate price discovery or will they step up to secure their place in history? Time will tell, but what is certain is that PLM will save an immeasurable amount of lives and take away untold suffering if it can navigate its way to regulatory approval. But while BIXT may be curing Covid, there is still only one cure for FOMO. Investors would do well to stop waiting on the sidelines to enter or affirm their positions before this game-changing anti-viral goes viral.
Disclosure: MicroCap Daily and its owners do not have a position in the stocks posted and have posted this article for free without editorial input. This article was written by a guest contributor and solely reflects his opinions.
BioXyTran Inc (OTCMKTS: BIXT) Crushes Primary Endpoint, Expected to Achieve Unicorn Status in New Year
Last month, BioXyTran Inc (OTCMKTS: BIXT) achieved a once-in-a-decade type event with their announcement of a perfect phase 2 clinical trial outcome with a 100% response rate by day 7. Only when Gilead (NASDAQ: GILD) announced results of their Hepatitis C treatment in May 2013, which became a cure for HCV, did a trial last achieve a perfect response rate status and then increased the company’s market value by $80 billion in the process. Most investors familiar with BioXyTran know the company for its oxygenation drug, BXT-025, which has massive potential across many medical indications, including ischemic stroke. However, fewer investors are just as familiar with the company’s prowess in infectious diseases, specifically with antivirals. The question on investors’ minds is how an obscure oxygen carrier company turned into a potential pandemic-ending therapeutic company. The answer is that the therapy wasn’t a repurposed drug; it was developed from scratch.
During the pandemic’s start, the company made a hard pivot into COVID-19, where a predominant number of biotechs shifted toward COVID-19 treatments. Clinical trials in chronic diseases slowed to a halt while healthcare facilities focused solely on the pandemic. The company’s deep expertise in carbohydrate chemistry presented a unique opportunity to do what nobody else was doing—design a carbohydrate-based antiviral for COVID-19 that might act as an entry inhibitor instead of blocking viral replication from the inside. The idea’s genesis started in March 2020, when the focus of the world’s researchers was on getting a compromised immune system to respond better and faster to clear the viral infection. The oral version of the antiviral they developed, ProLectin-M, is an unconventional antiviral since it doesn’t interfere at the intracellular level; instead, it blocks viral docking of the virus to the target cell by binding to galectins and a conserved site on the spike protein. Most antivirals work inside the cell, but this works outside the cell as an entry inhibitor.
Overcoming Adversity – David vs. Goliath Struggle
The company successfully jumped through hurdles that other companies did not have placed in their path. They were one of 38 companies suspended by the SEC in a blanket of COVID-19 enforcement action that temporarily suspended the company and effectively forced them to reregister the company in order to achieve trading status via a 15c211 filing. To survive, the company had to raise money as essentially a private company and negotiate with debtors they were in default to. They found the backing of a private equity firm and high-net-worth individuals and went through an almost 2-year process in order to regain trading status while cleaning up all their toxic debt. They were the only company to return to trading status as an OTCQB-listed stock from the SEC COVID trading halts. If the SEC was using the premise of “survival of the fittest” during the COVID halts then BioXyTan might have emerged as a new life form because as you will see their drug not only works but has pandemic-changing potential.
Helping drive the need for new therapeutics is the fall off of vaccine effectiveness, along with COVID-19 becoming an endemic problem. However, it doesn’t seem quite endemic yet as deaths in the United States are still averaging over 2000 weekly. Ongoing infections and hospitalizations as well as antivirals proving effective are going to help validate the long-term stability of a market for antivirals. Thus, this story has become pretty compelling.
BioXyTran’s Value Inflection
Last month, BioXyTran released topline results from its lead asset, ProLectin-M, an orally administered COVID-19 antiviral candidate, in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. The drug exceeded all expectations with:
“-Complete elimination of viral load in 100% of patients at day 7 vs 6% in placebo (p=.001)
-Complete elimination of viral load in 88% of patients at day 3 vs 0% in placebo (p=.001)
-Treated population experienced no viral rebounds within the 14-day observation period”
When looking at these results, investors have to keep in mind that BioXyTran achieved these pristine-looking results despite enrolling patients 1) with high viral load (Ct<25), 2) regardless of vaccination status (unvaccinated and vaccinated), and 3) with any medical conditions—no limits. This is noteworthy because current COVID antivirals aren’t technically indicated for patients who are otherwise considered healthy and vaccinated—Merck (NYSE: MRK) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) excluded vaccinated individuals in their phase 3 studies to help them achieve their endpoints. In the case of Paxlovid, there are many contraindications for Paxlovid, which limits its market, which is enormous anyway; Pfizer expects $22 billion in 2022 Paxlovid sales.
It’s a bit of an apples-and-oranges comparison to try to compare these results to Paxlovid because of methods and materials differences and data availability. But by all available measures, it sure looks like ProLectin-M is overthrowing Pfizer’s Paxlovid as the superior COVID-19 antiviral.
The company released data a while ago in a small phase 1 study which suggested that the drug would work fairly well, but issues in gathering data on placebo patients made it really difficult to draw solid conclusions confidently.
However, the new data BioXyTran released arguably puts it in the lead in the COVID-19 antiviral field with respect to viral load data. It seems that no other company could compete to this degree if they wanted to use their antiviral as a prophylactic, which could be especially useful in, for instance, travel or healthcare situations since the viral load can have a great effect on transmissibility. These two clinical trials denote what looks to be an unstoppable trend that could culminate with regulatory approval.
ProLectin-M Likely Eliminates SARS-CoV-2 More Effectively
This is where the red-apple-to-green-apple comparison sets in. ProLectin is much more effective at quickly bringing the viral load down since it prevents viral entry while helping mop up the existing viral load. However, the only way to really compare the rate of viral elimination (by time-to-Ct≥30) is through two different studies with two different PCR tests, and heterogeneous populations. Despite that, the drastic difference between time-to-undetectable viral burden is so different between the groups that it paints a pretty clear picture of which antiviral likely works better:
A real-world study of Paxlovid and Lagevrio was done in a hospitalized group of patients, where key endpoints measured were time to achieving low viral burden, or Ct≥30. The real-world study showed that the antivirals were highly effective in getting patients’ viral loads down, with cycle threshold values increasing over placebo by ~3 by days 5-7. However, the antivirals failed to cause a large portion of patients to have a low viral burden by days 5-7; if one looks at the excerpted charts below, ~4-5% of patients on those two antivirals had low viral burdens vs ~1-2% in the match controls. Compare this to BioXyTran’s 100% of treated patients reaching Ct≥30 vs 6% of the placebo group reaching Ct≥30.
Adapted from https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00507-2/fulltext
BioXyTran’s treated patient data outperforms the real-world Paxlovid/Lagevrio data to the extent that when it is superimposed on the journal’s graph of the antivirals’ performances, the Prolectin curve doesn’t even fit on the chart, which is cut off at 50%. Note that in BioXyTran’s trial, the placebo arm reached a mere 6% Ct≥30, so the placebo line would basically look flat up until day 7. Does it even matter that the compared populations are heterogenous when Prolectin-M outperforms by such a large margin?
We can do a further comparison with Paxlovid and see that after day 7, Paxlovid mustered a mere ~-1log10 change in viral load over placebo (about 1/10th the viral load). This is good but when compared to Prolectin-M it falls short. Prolectin-M, which is showing about an average Ct value of ~+8 versus placebo on day 7 (which translates to over 1/100th the viral load in my estimation). The picture starts becoming clearer; Prolectin clears the virus really quickly.
The last drug to achieve such a high responders rate for viral load was Gilead’s drug Harvoni which is a cure for Hepatitis C. This drug supplemented Gilead’s HIV business and helped bolster its market capitalization by $80 billion of dollars in the course of 1.5 years.
Hepatitis C was indeed an incurable chronic condition that isn’t the same as an acute infectious disease like COVID. But they both have enormous economic burdens. And COVID-19 can lead to Long-COVID.
Long-COVID, however, is also a chronic condition with an immense burden to the person and the overall economy. It is likely that with a lack of viral rebound seen in BioXyTran’s COVID-19 phase 2 and some symptom measurement in the anticipated phase 3 trial, they would be making a great case for Long-COVID. And in terms of economic burden, Long-COVID is estimated to be much greater ($3.7 trillion) than Hepatitis-C, especially when one considers the fact that every time COVID mutates and reinfects patients, it has the chance of causing Long-COVID again. Hepatitis C doesn’t pose the same issue since it’s not airborne.
Two of the leading theories for Long-COVID include viral persistence and the persistence of the spike protein S1 subunit in monocytes. Prolectin-M targets this part of the spike and therefore could theoretically address Long-COVID from either perspective. In fact, when looking at viral rebound after therapy, Prolectin-M exhibited no patients with viral rebound whereas it is documented that “Paxlovid has significant rebound issues: 3.53% and 5.40% for COVID-19 infection, 2.31% and 5.87% for COVID-19 symptoms, and 0.44% and 0.77% for hospitalizations.” So when considering these facts it isn’t a stretch to expect BioXyTran to measure viral rebound in its upcoming phase 3 and potentially even start to pursue Long-COVID.
BioXyTran has maintained about a $2 million cash burn for the past 2 years, but only has about $0.37 million of cash in the bank. The company will need an estimated $2.7 million outlined in its latest presentation for running its pivotal acute COVID-19 trial. If it wants to pay off its convertible notes, it will need an additional $2.2 million. While this picture, makes it seem like BioXyTran is insolvent and unable to finance a phase 3 trial, its cost structure is extremely lean with officers forfeiting accrued salaries and benefits. The biggest risk with BIXT is their ability to attract capital because the risk of the medicine failing is just not realistic and it may seem too good to be true. This assumes that the peer review goes off without a hitch and doesn’t turn into a Theranos scandal. While a risk, it is important to characterize it as a very low risk since their journal article included the Mechanisms of Action (MOA) deduced from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) imaging. The NMR tests show binding to the spike and arguing against that conclusion is equivalent to saying 1+1 is not equal to 2.
There is also the traditional regulatory risk, but the company is going after approval in the United States and India, so its dual track offers investors a plan B should any barriers present themselves. The Indian regulatory climate makes it very tough to get a drug into trials because unlike the US FDA all the manufacturing needs to be done beforehand. However, it’s a dual-edged sword because if the study meets its endpoints in India approval happens swiftly whereas in the United States there is a lot of back and forth on the safety and manufacturing of the drug.
The risk of dilution is very high given that they filed an S-1 on April 12, 2022, but it has not gone effective. It’s reasonable to assume that BioXyTran got a “no comment” S-1, meaning all they have to do is mark in a price and resubmit it for effectiveness. The fact that they didn’t complete a raise in light of these phase 2 trial results suggests that the valuation levels might not be high enough or that they might have another plan.
The quickest way to figure out what kind of value these homerun phase 2 results brings to BioXyTran is to compare the market potential to existing antivirals on the market and in development. From a sales perspective, Pfizer’s antiviral Paxlovid pulled in sales of $7.5 billion just this last quarter, which met the company’s expectations for $22 billion in the full year. There is a significant market opportunity for new market entrants with differentiated products; a Fierce Pharma article stated that:
“More needs to be done to convince doctors that Paxlovid is a good option for patients, said Angela Hwang, chief commercial officer and president of Pfizer’s global biopharmaceutical business.
‘The one area of education that we need to emphasize is: Who are the eligible people for Paxlovid,” Hwang said. “There are 22 risk factors for who should be eligible and those include those who are over 65—age-related risks—but equal risks like mental health illness, inactive lifestyle, risks you may not be aware of. I think that’s where we want to focus now.’”
BioXyTran probably doesn’t expect to sell its drug with a large sales force. What is more likely is that the company pursues a licensing deal with pharma or sells directly to governments, like when Pfizer sold 10 million courses of Paxlovid to the U.S. government for $5.3 billion.
With respect to stock market value, we can compare to a company that lost billions in market capitalization when its phase 2 results for a COVID-19 antiviral flopped. BioXyTran isn’t the first company to design a phase 2 trial to measure viral load. Well-backed Atea Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AVIR) released topline results from its Phase 2 trial of its own COVID-19 antiviral about a year ago. Atea Pharmaceuticals lost over $2 billion in market capitalization the day it announced that its oral RdRp inhibitor called AT-527, intended to be an improved version of Gilead’s remdesivir, failed to meet its primary endpoint, and the company cited that in a subset of patients, the viral load went down (a little bit): “In high-risk patients with underlying health conditions, a reduction of viral load of approximately 0.5 log10 at Day 7 was observed at 550 mg (prespecified subgroup analysis) and 1,100 mg BID (exploratory subgroup analysis) compared with placebo”.
The drug failed to meet its primary endpoint in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19, where BioXyTran passed with flying colors. Compare Atea’s subgroup 0.5log10 reduction in viral load vs placebo at day 7 to my estimate of BioXyTran’s reduction: 2log10 reduction at day 7 for ProLectin vs placebo. Prolectin even compares favorably to Paxlovid’s ~1log10 change vs placebo). So we can speculate that BioXyTran’s results, in the heat of COVID-19, might have been worth $2 billion. While the pandemic fear has subsided, these results are still highly valuable and it’s likely safe to say that an antiviral with robust viral clearance such as Prolectin-M should be worth at least a few hundred million.
In a hypothetical situation where BioXyTran completes its phase 3 trial successfully and secures an order to a government organization in 2024 for 1/5th of what Pfizer did, we can discount that value to the present using a modest P/S multiple of 2.5x and a WACC of 30%, as well as a risk factor of 50%. The resulting value is $784 million. Accounting for some additional dilution, using 150 million shares outstanding, we arrive at $5.23/share. This valuation is well below the $2.2 billion AVIR lost when posting negative phase 2 results, and it is significantly less than the total revenue Pfizer posted for Paxlovid in this latest quarter. From about $0.50 for BIXT shares, this would be a 10-bagger, hypothetically.
Primary risks at this point include funding; the company needs money to run its phase 3. The company may also have to compete with big pharma to sell their antiviral, though at this point the patient populations do not necessarily overlap much. Lastly, the endpoints currently set in its planned phase 3 trial are primarily seropositivity and secondarily, symptoms, time to discharge, duration of hospitalization, and mortality. Other key antivirals have been approved based on time to resolution of disease/alleviation of symptoms (Tamiflu – Roche (OTCMKTS: RHHBY)) and reduction in hospitalization and death (Paxlovid – Pfizer, and Lagevrio – Merck), all of which are clinical endpoints rather than biomarker endpoints (serum positivity). However, BioXyTran is still measuring clinical endpoints; they’re just listed as secondary endpoints at this time.
As with all clinical-stage biotechnology companies, there are management, funding, and clinical trial outcome risks that in general put biotech companies like this in a very high-risk category, which balances against the high reward. BIXT also trades on the OTC, where volumes are lower and investments can be more speculative.
Bioxtytran is fighting the mindset that COVID is over and that there is no way a small pharma can produce a pandemic-ending therapeutic. The prevailing thought is that the world has entered the endemic phase and that we all must find ways to live with the virus. The facts tell a different story. Although there are no head-to-head comparisons of ProLectin-M to Paxlovid, BioXyTran’s phase 2 results appear superior in every metric. There is no known toxicity or drug-to-drug interactions compared to the 40+ known drugs that Paxlovid interferes with. The efficacy results are unprecedented because BIXT had almost a 90% response rate by day 3 and no viral rebounds within 14 days like those that are reported with Paxlovid use. The company also proved their MOA that their drug attaches to the spike protein and galectins to prevent viral entry—these results are not expected to be a fluke. Their journal article BIXT published harps on the idea of reducing infectivity and introduces the idea that by treating the disease early we can potentially prevent Long-COVID. ProLectin-M is a drug designed for the masses and would likely have broad appeal given its currently-observed tolerability profile.
BIXT has about a $50 million market cap despite its completion of a phase 2, and the price attempted a readjustment on the day of the release but it appears that profit takers had other plans, and the stock isn’t quite well-known yet. Given the high insider ownership of 75% and the low float of 12 million shares, it takes some time to get the word circulated. Some may speculate that this could be a cure for COVID because two clinical trials denote a very favorable trend, but what’s arguably more important is counteracting the increased infectivity as the variants have mutated to become more transmissible or evade existing anti-spike antibodies from mass vaccination. The time spent quarantining and the productivity lost before returning to work or feeling better is all calculus in the future pricing of the drug. In all likelihood, with governments buying bulky contracts, the governments will set the pricing and consider these factors. ProLectin-M has the potential to be one of the biggest hits of all time, like Pfizer’s $22 billion Paxlovid, though this claim might seem ridiculous in light of BioXyTran’s market capitalization. Having a small amount in a portfolio could dramatically improve its performance as word of the clinical breakthrough starts to spread.
Disclosure: MicroCapDaily has not been compensated for this article. This post was written by a guest contributor and posted on our website for free. The owners of MicroCapDaily have no position in any of the securities mentioned.
Cosmos Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: COSM) Huge Short Position Panicks as COSM Rockets Up the Charts
Cosmos Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: COSM) is rocketing up the charts northbound since reversing off $0.0675 lows earlier this month where we first gave the heads up on COSM at around a dime in our article here. Since than COSM has rocketed northbound recently surpassing $0.60 per share with speculators pointing at $1 as the next stop. In our previous article on COSM on November 13 when COSM was $0.10 we stated: “COSM was trading well over $3 at the beginning of this year but has been heavily shorted since than with current estimates of well over 5 million shares sold short and almost the entire public float sold short.
While COSM has been heavily shorted into oblivion, the Company is actually doing quite well recently reporting revenues for the 3 months ended September 30 were $12 million. The Company is successfully developing their business recently closing a deal with Iberica, a European Airline, for in flight distribution of their products. The CEO has bought millions of shares at current levels and COSM is beginning to go viral on social media trending on the sub reddit Short Squeeze, Number #1 on Stocktwits and multiple videos being made on YouTube about a massive short squeeze taking place in small caps.
COSM Friday December 2, 4PM Close Update: COSM had a wild trading day on Friday dropping to $0.42 in the morning before rocketing up to $0.61 highs. This was followed by another drop to the $0.47 range before COSM rocketed up in late afternoon trading, closing at $0.53 on 205 million shares traded. COSM was up 33% on the day on around $110 million in dollar volume. COSM is setup for an enormous week ahead, looking to overtake the $0.845 from Monday and embark on a blue-sky breakout with $1 as the first stop. We gave the heads up on COSM when the stock was below $0.10 per share at the beginning of November. We will be updating on COSM as soon as anything new happens so make sure you are subscribed to Microcapdaily by entering your email in the box below.
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Cosmos Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: COSM) is a global healthcare group that was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. Cosmos Health is engaged in the nutraceuticals sector through its own proprietary lines of products “Sky Premium Life” and “Mediterranation.” Additionally, the Company is operating in the pharmaceutical sector through the provision of a broad line of branded generics and OTC medications and is involved in the healthcare distribution sector through its subsidiaries in Greece and UK serving retail pharmacies and wholesale distributors. Cosmos Health is strategically focused on the R&D of novel patented nutraceuticals (IP) and specialized root extracts as well as on the R&D of proprietary complex generics and innovative OTC products. Cosmos has developed a global distribution platform and is currently expanding throughout Europe, Asia and North America. Cosmos Health has offices and distribution centers in Thessaloniki and Athens, Greece and Harlow, UK.
The Number #2 post on the subreddit ShortSqueeze currently is titled: COSM about to test resistance. A pump through $0.66 and lift off to over $1.00 is possible now.
In another post on COSM in the subreddit ShortSqueeze rubio2430 states: “$COSM you cant make this stuff up. this baby is ready for space. the shorts are burying themselves on the daily. constant pr’s, growing fundamentals, no plans on dilutions, dual listing on upstream soon—the list goes on!
nimble_broccoli replied: Why this is a good play:
1.) Extremely tiny Marketcap 2.) CEO buying 15’000’000 shares 3.) Good fundamentals, unlike other plays, they actually sell products valued around 10x the valuation. Q1/22 was profitable. 4.) Getting momentum on social media (Reddit Twitter, YT)
Next catalysts: -Info that they will not be delisted from NASDAQ -Degen and Retail FOMO kicking in -Shorts starting to cover their asses
In addition, consider this: The stock was somewhere between USD 2 and USD 12 the past ~8 years. Most Hodlers bought back then, do you think they will sell now? Do your own thinking but if one of my stocks dropped 80+ % i d not sell, i d just hope for a miracle or ride it out. Thus, not many regular buy&hold holders of the stock are expected to sell.
Cosmos operates in the business of full-line pharmaceutical wholesale distribution and serves approximately 1,500 independent retail pharmacies and 40 pharmaceutical wholesalers in Greece region by providing brand-name and generic pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter medicines, vitamins and nutraceuticals. Cosmos invests in technology to enhance safety, distribution and warehousing efficiency and reliability. Specifically, the Company operates a fully automated warehouse system with three robotic systems, two ROWA™ types and one A-frame type, that ensure 0% error selection rate, accelerate order fulfillment, and yield higher cost-efficiency in our distribution center. Cosmos has 3 operating subsidiaries including:
COSM business is strong and Q3 highlights include closing a $7.5M capital raise via public offering and signing an exclusive agreement to market and distribute Nickelodeon’s SpongeBob and PAW Patrol kids’ vitamins in Greece and Cyprus, aiming to reach out 11,000 pharmacies and 120 wholesalers in Greece and 780 pharmacies in Cyprus. They also executed a letter of intent for a strategic co-venture agreement with Smart for Life (SMLF) to cross market products and services in their reciprocal markets. COSM also entered into an LOI to acquire ZipDoctor Inc., and entered into an agreement with Virax Biolabs (VRAX), to become the distributor of Monkeypox Virus Real-Time PCR Detection Kits, having the exclusive distribution rights for Greece and Cyprus, with the opportunity to distribute the test kits across Europe on a non-exclusive basis. SkyPharm officially launched its first Sky Premium Life products on Amazon in the United States. Cosmos targets having all 85 SKUs listed on Amazon by year end. COSM entered into an LOI to acquire Pharmaceutical Laboratories CANA S.A., and another LOI to acquire LIFE NLB, Ltd.’s product portfolio, including Bone-Vio® and Bone-X, related to bone health targeting the human gastrointestinal microbiome.
Last week COSM announced its Sky Premium Life luxury food supplement brand will be sold on Ronda, the official inflight magazine of the airline company Iberia of BRITISH AIRWAYS group. Ronda is available free of charge to the over 10 million passengers who fly Iberian Airlines annually. Iberia Airlines, majority owned by British Airways, has a fleet of 147 aircrafts and engages in over 600 daily flights.
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Currently trading at a $36 million market valuation COSM os is 92,008,281 the Company recently reported Q3 Revenues of $12 million down a bit from the same time last year due to a high variation in FX differences between EUR and GBP to USD. COSM was trading over $4 this time last year however OS has increased substantially since then. COSM is an exciting opportunity in small caps; the stock was shorted into oblivion and currently there are minimum 5.8 million shares short and was way oversold to pennies and it looked as if it would definitely get delisted by the Nasdaq however, led by able CEO Grigorios Siokas, Cosmos is fighting back. Mr. Siokas continues to buy more COSM at current price levels, putting his money where his mouth is as COSM rockets towards $1 which is now just a day and half away if the stock continues up at the same trend. We will be updating on COSM when more details emerge so make sure you are subscribed to Microcapdaily.
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Disclosure: we hold no position in COSM either long or short and we have not been compensated for this article.
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