Novo Integrated Sciences (NASDAQ: NVOS) has experienced a remarkable surge since our last report on August 15th, 2023, peaking with an astounding 350% increase by October 5th, 2023. Following this peak, we witnessed some consolidation, culminating in a closing price of $1.70 yesterday, November 8th, 2023. Regardless, this still reflects a 46.5% gain from the levels observed in August, but there’s certainly a number of changes worth discussing.
An ongoing narrative with NVOS involves the controversial issue of naked shorting, drawing parallels to the situations observed with FNGR. Retail investors have taken up the mantle, actively striving to bring attention to regulatory figures, including Gary Gensler, the chairman of the SEC, in an effort to address the potential fraudulent activities.
Recognizing the significance of recent developments, we believe it’s crucial to offer an updated market analysis, ultimately providing a better understanding of NVOS’ prospects in the coming weeks.
Background:
NVOS is committed to transforming patient well-being with an all-encompassing three-pronged strategy, offering inventive solutions for holistic care. This includes leveraging medical technology, advanced therapies, and rehabilitative science to enhance accessibility, enabling the delivery of medical services directly to patients’ homes.
The goal is to transform traditional in-person visits to a more decentralized healthcare. This not only improves convenience for patients, but also reduces the risk of non-critical health issues turning into serious conditions. Here’s more on the approach:
- Service Networks: Providing primary care services through various channels, such as clinic facilities, smaller clinics in commercial areas, franchised clinics, and company-operated clinics.
- Technology: Novo develops and uses advanced technology to connect patients with healthcare practitioners. This extends the reach of their services beyond traditional clinic locations, making healthcare more accessible, even in areas without advanced healthcare services.
- Products: Novo creates and distributes personalized health and wellness products, focusing on preventive care. Their goal is to contribute to a healthier population by offering over-the-counter solutions for preventive and maintenance care.
Combining scientific innovation with secure technology, NVOS aims to stay at the forefront of patient-centric healthcare platforms.
Latest Release:
Against the recommendation of retail investors, NVOS announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock split which was effective immediately following the Nasdaq Capital Market’s closing on November 6, 2023 and commenced on November 7, 2023, under the new CUSIP number, 67011T300.
Robert Mattacchione, Novo’s CEO and Chairman of the Board, clarified that the decision to implement the reverse stock split stems from a strategic effort to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s minimum bid price requirement. The Board of Directors, after thorough consideration, endorsed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, anticipating enhanced positioning to maximize shareholder value.
The Company perceives the maintenance of its Nasdaq listing as a key strategic move, aiming to broaden its appeal to a more diverse investor base, encompassing both institutional and retail investors.
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Effects of a Reverse Stock Split:
As many of you may be aware, the value of your investment remains unaffected by any type of stock split, including a reverse stock split. (Even though it may give the appearance of an increase in share price). The primary impact is on the share structure of the company, specifically the number of outstanding shares.
For instance, if NVOS initially had 300 million shares outstanding and undergoes a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, the new scenario would involve 30 million shares in circulation, and the price per share would consequently increase by a factor of 10.
This reduction in the number of shares in circulation tightens the float, potentially leading to increased volatility in the market. It is important to acknowledge that changes in the share structure, such as a reverse stock split, can contribute to heightened volatility in future trading activities.
So why might a reverse stock split be bad? The CEO Robert Mattacchione specifically did this to broaden their appeal to institutional and retail investors. If we look online, you’ll see many retail investors upset with the announcement. Let’s take a look at what @borders_LLC, a notable supporter of NVOS on Twitter, had to say.
Thoughts From Retail:
@borders_LLC, among others, expressed evident frustration with the CEO and board’s decision to make this move. You can find the tweet here for reference.
He emphatically advised the CEO against proceeding with the action, firmly convinced that the company could generate sufficiently impactful announcements to justify a surge in share price, surpassing the Nasdaq’s minimum $1 bid compliance. Following the announcement, this significant shareholder faced an unexpected loss of 9.3 million and was caught completely off guard by the turn of events.
While resorting to a reverse stock split may appear standard when a company falls short of compliance standards, the prevailing sentiment among investors suggests that the company may have faltered in executing strategies to significantly enhance its value as a publicly traded entity.
The stakes are high for pre-revenue companies, and investors expect management to deliver on their promises. Failure to meet these expectations leads to a loss of interest, prompting a gradual withdrawal of investments until the stock price plunges to a level that no longer meeting the $1 minimum bid compliance standards.
The decision to implement a reverse stock split can be perceived as an acknowledgment of defeat, signalling a belief that the company may struggle to make substantial advancements capable of justifying a significant increase in share price.
Many also lose trust in the management team and their capabilities to deliver. If we look at stocks like TTOO and MULN, who also went through reverse stock splits to maintain compliance, we’ll see that they too shortly after the announcement continued to lose significant value as a publicly traded entity. TTOO shares in particular lost 73.9% after their announcement.
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Potential Opportunities:
If we shift away from the gloomy outlook for a moment, we can see that while initial concerns with the stock split were valid, the announcement didn’t necessarily have as significant of a negative impact as anticipated. At the time of writing, it’s sitting ~ $1.61, a 40.3% decline since the announcement of the reverse stock split. All things considered, this is much better than TTOO’s outcome of a 73.9% decline.
Nevertheless, the heightened anticipation surrounding this stock stems from its association with the controversial practice of naked shorting. According to one user on Twitter, we see that the cost to borrow fee is now 144%. Insinuating that shorts are in high demand and continue to pile in. However there are a number of potential near term catalysts that could spark serious changes in valuation for the company.
We’re continuing to see strong volume and with a 14.68M float, NVOS could continue to move in a volatile nature. That said, a concrete PR could potentially rocket the company to new heights, or conversely, see a substantial decline in your position. You’ll require a high risk tolerance for a company like NVOS.
Outlined below, are potential catalysts that online users believe could catch shorts in a tough spot, forcing them to cover and ultimately cause a short squeeze.
Promissory Note:
Their announcement on November 6th, 2023 marked a noteworthy development for NVOS. The company disclosed that RC Consulting Group LLC has officially communicated the initiation of the final phase for the withdrawal/payment to Novo of the unsecured 15-year $70,000,000 promissory note with RC. This transaction would result in a lump sum debt funding of $57,000,000, after deducting fees and expenses. What’s important to note, is management mentioned the completion of this process would take 3-5 business days. This was of course already 3 days ago, advancements on this aspect are imminent.
In today’s climate of constrained capital markets and costly fundraising, this development is particularly favorable for the company. As per their latest earnings report, the net loss stood at $1,497,330. With a capital infusion of $57 million, this provides a significant runway for the company, increasing the potential for achieving profitability and a less likely event of more near-term dilution.
Share Repurchase Program:
Another positive development is the company’s declaration of a $5 million share repurchase program, contingent upon the reception of the aforementioned $57 million. Many speculate that this move, coupled with other factors, might exert buying pressure against the short positions. It’s essential to note that there are regulations governing repurchases, including a limitation that prohibits the acquisition of more than 25% of the daily average volume.
$40 Investment Commitment:
NVOS is currently in talks to secure the first location for a senior living community as part of its national growth initiative. As previously disclosed, there’s a funding commitment in place for a direct investment of $40,000,000 from Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammad bin Fahad Al Thanayan through Gulf International Minerals and Energy Group (GIMEG). This financial support is anticipated to lead to project-specific joint ventures, focusing on the development of elder care and senior living community facilities in Canada.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, NVOS has navigated a rollercoaster of developments since our last update in August, 2023. The stock’s significant gains and subsequent consolidation, coupled with the controversial backdrop of fraudulent shorting, have stirred both excitement and skepticism among investors.
As NVOS treads through a dynamic landscape, investors must weigh the ongoing controversies, management decisions, and the potential impact of upcoming catalysts that come with substantial risk. If your investment process is anything like a r/wallstreetbets investor, you might just “YOLO” a position.
In any case, we recommend keeping a close eye on NVOS, given its limited float, substantial short interest, and the anticipation of several upcoming catalysts that could potentially propel the company to new heights.
We will update you on NVOS when more details emerge, subscribe to Microcapdaily to follow along!
Disclosure: We have not been compensated for this article/video. MicroCap Daily is not an investment advisor; this article/video does not provide investment advice. Always do your research, make your own investment decisions, or consult with your nearest financial advisor. This article/video is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. This article/video is our opinion, is meant for informational and educational purposes only, and does not provide investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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