On July 5th, 2023, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: BTAI) experienced a remarkable 42% increase in value. With an absence of any official announcements or disclosures from the company, it remains unclear what exactly triggered such a significant surge. However, upon closer examination, we have come across intriguing information from retail traders that might shed some light on this matter. Before we get started, let’s explore the results and events that transpired on June 29th, 2023.

Overview of TRANQUILITY II Phase 3 Trial Results:
On June 29, 2023, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: BTAI) announced that their drug BXCL501 showed positive results in a clinical trial for treating agitation related to Alzheimer’s disease. The trial achieved its primary goal of reducing agitation compared to a placebo. However, the company also disclosed that there were concerns about the conduct of a principal investigator at one of the trial sites. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) inspected the site and identified some issues, such as failure to follow approved procedures and delays in reporting adverse events. BioXcel will be conducting an investigation into the conduct and data integrity at that site through an independent audit. As a result, there is uncertainty surrounding the drug’s approval until these concerns are resolved.
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The trial, called TRANQUILITY II, involved adults aged 65 and older with Alzheimer’s-related agitation. The patients received either BXCL501 or a placebo over a 12-week period. The primary endpoint was a measurement of agitation two hours after the first dose. The trial met its primary endpoint for the 60 µg dose of BXCL501, showing a statistically significant reduction in agitation compared to the placebo.
The trial also assessed secondary endpoints, such as overall improvement and calmness, and the drug showed positive effects in those areas as well. In terms of safety, the most commonly reported side effects were sleepiness and low blood pressure. The trial reported falls and deaths, but these were not determined to be related to the drug.
However, concerns about the conduct of the principal investigator at one of the trial sites have caused uncertainty. The FDA inspection identified issues with adherence to protocols and reporting procedures. BioXcel is conducting its own investigation into the site through an independent third party to verify the collected data. If additional issues are discovered, it may be necessary for BioXcel to conduct another clinical trial before seeking approval for BXCL501.
Investors appear to have reacted negatively to the news of potential misconduct, causing a significant drop in the company’s stock value. Until the investigation is complete and the regulatory issues are resolved, the future approval of BXCL501 for treating agitation in Alzheimer’s patients remains uncertain. As a result, the probability of approval has been lowered, impacting the valuation of the company.
What Happened on July 5th:
Upon conducting our customary analysis of retail investors’ perspectives, we came across a Twitter user named “Andrea Nelson-Lum Trader” who presented an intriguing viewpoint. According to this user, the trial conducted by BioXcel Therapeutics (BTAI) encountered a challenge related to a specific patient in just one of the placebo groups. The user suggests that the initial drop in the stock’s value could be an exaggerated reaction and possibly one of the most significant overreactions in the history of the biotech industry.
Furthermore, other users are referencing research conducted by The Bank of America’s Global Research team. This research team has reportedly revised their price target for BTAI from $43 to $23. Moreover, they downgraded the probability of success in the trial from 80% to 25%. It might be worthwhile to access the original tweet and explore the ongoing discussion in the comment section, as some users are expressing contrasting opinions to the Bank of America’s research team’s analysis of the recent events at BioXcel Therapeutics.
Final Tweet with Further Explanation on Potential:
A final significant observation we made was by a user who goes by “TheGodFatherKnows” on Twitter. His Tweet reports various potential positives to keep in mind for the company.
Allow us to add clarification on the terms and technical aspects mentioned in the Tweet for better comprehension.
The user highlights that the float, representing the number of shares available for trading, is relatively limited for BTAI at 20 million shares. Additionally, 4.6 million shares are being sold short, indicating that investors are betting on a decrease in the stock price. This short interest represents about 22.7% of the total shares available. Considering the tight float and high level of short interest, the user suggests the possibility of a short squeeze, which occurs when short sellers rush to cover their positions, potentially leading to a rapid increase in the stock price.
Furthermore, Canaccord, a notable financial firm, reiterates its target price (TP) of $75 for BTAI’s stock. They acknowledge concerns regarding data integrity and adherence to the trial protocol raised by the principal investigator (PI). However, they emphasize that the drug’s efficacy data remains strong.
BioXcel Therapeutics took proactive measures by reporting the issue to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). It’s important to note that the PI involved in the matter had no prior involvement in previous trials of the drug. The issue in question affected patients who received a placebo rather than the actual drug.
The issues related to informed consent impacted only four patients. Importantly, the data from the PI did not significantly influence the trial results in a positive or negative manner.
If the data from the PI is excluded from the analysis, the trial results still demonstrate consistent trends, accounting for approximately 60% of the patients. BioXcel’s management is confident that these issues will not hinder their collaboration with the FDA in the latter half of 2023, as they pursue a potential submission of a new drug application (sNDA). Canaccord estimates a 65% probability of approval for the drug Igalmi in treating agitation related to Alzheimer’s disease, with a projected launch in 2025. They maintain their target price of $75 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.
As always, it is crucial to approach any investment with an open mind and conduct thorough research to form your own informed opinions. Take the time to delve into the details, evaluate multiple sources, and make well-informed decisions based on your own research.
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